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    Solid Gains in the Pre to Kickstart 2011

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on January 3, 2011 9:22am

    Morning Notes

    - Seeing nice strength in the premarket this morning
    - China manufacturing PMI posted a decline m/m while non manufacturing PMI came in better m/m

    Kickstart the New Year


    - Shanghai Comp is closed today however so mkt reaction to comment on
    - Nikkei is also closed
    - Hang Seng is open and closed up 1.7%
    - Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in better than expected
    - German PMI came in lighter than expected
    - Currencies and commodities markets seeing light volume- again, note that China, Japan, and the UK closed today
    - Dollar is up small
    - ISM Manufacturing and construction spending numbers out @ 10a ET
    - S&P futures are up 10 handles from FV, trading above R4 pivot
    - In corporate news, BAC agreed with Freddie and Fannie to resolve repurchase claims and the bank expects to take a $2B Q4 impairment charge for residential mtge loans sold by BAC affiliates directly to the GSEs; BAC is up 4.5% in the pre
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    Posted in Economy | Tagged BAC, bank of america, china manufacturing PMI, China PMI, commodities market, Currencies, eurozone PMI, fair value, German PMI, Hang Seng, kickstart 2011, nikkei closed, pre market, R4 pivot, S&P Futures, Shanghai Comp, USD | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Nonfarm Payrolls Sucked

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on December 3, 2010 9:31am

    Morning Notes
    - Overseas markets were mixed
    - Comments out of China suggesting a switch from its looser monetary policy to a “prudent” one next year
    - Mixed comments around Greece where S&P warned about a possible downgrade whereas an ECB official said he sees solid improvements in the country
    - ECB President Trichet said he does not see a euro crisis coming, basically supporting the currency
    - Dollar showing weakness this morning; euro up
    - Futures quiet ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls @ 8:30a ET
    - Other economic items on the calendar for today: Factory Orders @ 8:30a; ISM @ 10a
    - Nonfarm Private Payrolls: 50K vs. 140K; October revised up to 160K from 159K
    - Nonfarm Payrolls: 39K vs. 130K; October revised to 172K from 151K
    - Unemployment Rate: 9.8% vs. 9.6%; prior was 9.6%
    - S&P futures sold off harshly upon data release
    - Dollar and treasuries sold off as well
    - S&P futures are now down 6.5 handles from FV, trading up against S3 pivot level

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged China monetary policy, ECB President Trichet, Euro, Greece downgrade, ISM, nonfarm private payrolls, November nonfarm payrolls, overseas markets, S&P Futures, S3 pivot level, tlt, treasuries, Unemployment Rate | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    ECB President Trichet’s Not Helping Here

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on December 2, 2010 9:30am

    Morning Notes
    - Overseas markets posting another day of solid gains
    - ECB President Trichet begins conference at 8:30a ET- probably will not disclose any clear details around plan, and a simple reassurance of backing troubled nations may be good enough for the markets
    - Nikkei closed up 1.8% as yen weakened and exporters were strong following yday’s US economic data
    - Reuters report out speculating that China is mulling a $1.5 trillion investment in strategic industries, e.g., alt energy, biotech, adv materials, alternative fuel cars, and green technologies
    - ECB left interest rates unc’d @ 1%, which was expected
    - S&P futures were up about 5 handles from FV, but has pulled in since- after Trichet conference began
    - Retails reported November same stores sales, almost all beat expectations, but names are trading mixed in the pre market, slightly skewed to the upside
    - Initial Jobless Claims: 436K vs. 424K; prior revised up to 410K from 407K
    - Continuing Claims: 4.27M vs. 4.2M; prior was 4.217M
    - Now just awaiting Pending Home Sales @ 10a ET
    - S&P futures continued to see weakness following commencement of ECB President Trichet’s press conference
    - Trichet did not address an expanded bond purchasing program; did mention though that refinancing and special terms offers will continue at least through April 2011 as scheduled; all this pulling in the futures
    - Euro also pulled in, dollar recovered as did Treasuries
    - S&P futures are now up 2.5 handle from FV ahead of the open

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged china investment in strategic industries, Continuing Claims, ecb interest rates, ecb president, ecb rates unchanged, Euro, Europe bond purchase program, Initial Jobless Claims, Jean Claude Trichet, JPY, Nikkei, no extended bond purchasing program, november same store sales, overseas markets, Pending Home Sales, refinancing until April, S&P Futures, tlt, treasuries, Yen | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Expecting a Quiet Friday, Though Remember Today is Options Expiration

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 19, 2010 8:34am

    Morning Notes

    -       Mixed action in overseas markets

    -       Fairly quiet in the o/n, no huge moves to the up or down side

    -       China’s central bank raised reserve requirements (after their close)

    -       Dollar down this morning

    -       Commodities up, but have pulled in since and are down now along with the dollar

    -       Better than expected earnings out of DELL last night

    -       Still, S&P futures are down small in the pre after yesterday’s strong rally

    -       Options expiration today so might see some vol

    -       Note that there are no economic data releases scheduled for today

    -       Expecting fairly quiet day overall

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    Posted in Stock Market | Tagged China's central bank, commodities, DELL earnings, options expiration, overnight session recap, overseas markets | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Slight Rebound After Yesterday’s Sell Off in the Market

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 17, 2010 8:42am

    Morning Notes
    - Overseas markets are mixed
    - China down big again today as rate hike speculation continues; rumors that PBOC could make a rate decision on Friday
    - Also, China’s State Council confirmed it will use price controls to help prevent rising inflation
    - Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both down about 2%
    - Nikkei, however, is up small
    - European markets flat to up small
    - More positive tone set in Europe as Irish Finance Minister to commence talks with IMF, EU, and ECB tomorrow to assess its financial situation
    - There had been talks yesterday that Austria would withhold its contribution to the Greece bailout pkg because Greece did not adequately meet fiscal req.; however, more clarity on that today as Austrian Finance Minister said it was referring to the next tranche of the bailout pkg, which is being delayed by one month
    - BOE minutes out today, no surprises there
    - Dollar up small
    - S&P futures up about 3.5 handles from FV, difficult to gauge direction as the action has been somewhat choppy, not on a pivot signal yet
    - October CPI m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.3%; prior was 0.1%
    - October CPI Ex Food & Energy: 0.0% vs. 0.1%; prior was 0.0%
    - Housing Starts: 519K vs. 600K
    - Building Permits: 550K vs. 570K
    - S&P futures now ticking higher, up 5.75 handles from FV, approaching highs of the day

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged Austria Greece package, Austrian Finance Minister, BOE minutes, building permits, China inflation, China rate hike, China State Council inflation, European markets, Greece bailout delay, Greece bailout package, Hang Seng, Housing Starts, IMF EU ECB, Irish Finance Minister, Nikkei, October CPI, overseas markets, PBOC rate decision, S&P Futures, Shanghai Comp | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Inflation Fears are the Name of the Game

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 16, 2010 8:53am

    Morning Notes

    -       Overseas mkts are all down this morning

    -       Shanghai Comp fell the most, down -3.98%

    -       JPY weak, adding more pressure to Nikkei

    -       S.Korea increase interest rates (largely unexpected), stirring more fears of inflation resulting in further rate hikes (namely by the PBOC, as was speculated—and feared—last week going into the weekend)

    -       Eurozone and UK CPI both came in worse than expected- further inflation fears here

    -       German ZEW sentiment data came in better than expected

    -       Debt concerns still lingering in Europe

    -       Gold and crude both down

    -       Dollar nicely bid, TLT as well

    -       This morning on CNBC, NY Fed Pres. Dudley came out defending QE2, saying it is not geared at weakening the dollar

    -       Decent amount of economic data coming out today starting with PPI @ 8:30a EST, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization @ 9:15a, finally NAHB Housing Mkt Idx @ 10a

    -       S&P futures down about 5.5 handles from FV ahead of data releases

    -       October PPI m/m: +0.4% vs. 0.8%; prior +0.4%

    -       October PPI Ex Food & Energy m/m: -0.6% vs. +0.1%; prior +0.1%

    -       Futures not really reacting to PPI numbers

    -       S&P futures down about 4.25 handles from FV, trading between the S4 and S3 pivot levels

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged Asian markets, capacity utilization, cnbc fed dudley, crude, europe debt concerns, European markets, Eurozone CPI, German ZEW, GLD, Gold, Industrial Production, inflation fears, JPY, NAHB Housing Market Index, Nikkei, october ppi, pboc rate, ppi ex food energy, qe2 dudley, S&P Futures, S4 pivot, Shanghai Comp, south korea interest rate, south korea rate hike, tlt, UK CPI, Yen | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Market Recovers After Weak Performance Last Week

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 15, 2010 8:41am

    Morning Notes

    - Overnight recap:
    - Asian markets mixed
    - Japan GDP came in better than expected, pushing the Nikkei up 1%
    - Note: Japan GDP number may be a one off due to strength in yen over the last few months (which could slow growth in upcoming qtrs)
    - PBOC did not make any interest rate decision over the weekend, as was speculated, helping boost the Shanghai Comp
    - Shanghai Comp also saw an end of day rally, closing up nearly 1%
    - Hang Seng is down, however, about 80bps
    - European markets are up
    - Crude, gold, dollar are up this AM
    - S&P futures are up nearly 6 handles from FV, trading at highs of premarket session
    - On economic calendar for today: Advance Retail Sales as well as Empire Manufacturing at 8:30a EST; Business Inventories at 10a
    - M&A activity adding positive tone to the markets as CAT is to acquire BUCY for $7.6B (32% premium) and EMC to acquire ISLN for $2.25B (29% premium)
    - October Retail Sales: +1.2% vs. 0.7%; prior revised up to +0.7% from +0.6%
    - October Retail Sales Ex Auto: +0.4% vs. +0.3%; prior revised up to +0.5% from +0.4%
    - Empire Manufacturing: -11.14 vs. 14
    - Market pushing lower after data releases

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    Posted in Stock Market | Tagged Advance Retail Sales, Asian markets, CAT BUCY, crude, economic data market reaction, EMC ISLN, Empire Manufacturing, European markets, GLD, Gold, Hang Seng, japan gdp, M&A activity, Nikkei, PBOC interest rate decision, S&P Futures, shanhai comp, yen strength | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    CSCO Will Make For Decent Action in the Market Despite Veterans Day Holiday

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 11, 2010 9:10am

    Morning Notes

    -       European markets down this morning

    -       ECB’s monthly bulletin suggested inflation on the rise, however growth is projected to exceed previous expectations

    -       CSCO earnings weighing down European markets as well as domestic market

    -       Asian markets are up however with strength attributed to Moody’s upgrade of China debt

    -       China CPI data came in higher than expected (highest in two years), but not pushing Asian markets lower as I mentioned above that Moody’s upgraded China’s debt

    -       Australian unemployment rate came in much higher than exp., hence weakness in their market

    -       Gold up, oil up

    -       G20 summit meeting began o/n

    -       Dollar is up again today (fifth day in a row)

    -       Euro at lows

    -       S&P futures down about 8 handles from FV

    -       CSCO earnings last night pushed market lower, particularly due to co.’s downside guidance (suggests slow spending in sector)

    -       CSCO weighing down other big tech names, and hence Naz futures lower than S&P futures as Naz has more tech weightings

    -       Note today is Veterans Day so U.S. bond mkt is closed; no items on economic calendar for today as well- may have made for light trading, however given CSCO’s earnings results, expecting decent action in the mkt today

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged Asian markets, Australian unemployment rate, China CPI, China's debt upgrade, Crude oil, CSCO downside guidance, CSCO earnings, dollar gain, ECB's monthly bulletin, Euro, Euro inflation, European markets, G20 summit, GLD, Gold, Nasdaq futures, S&P Futures, U.S. bond market, Veterans Day, Veterans Day trading | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    Overseas Markets Lower As Dollar Gains Again

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 10, 2010 8:48am

    Morning Notes

    -       Overseas markets down w/ exception of Nikkei, which was solidly bid as the yen moved lower

    -       People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased bank reserve requirements by 50bps, effective Monday

    -       China’s trade balance showed surplus- will stir more FX policy criticisms

    -       Gold down, silver down, dollar up again, treasuries down

    -       S&P futures down a bit, about 1 handle from FV ahead of jobless claims number, trading between S3/R3 pivot levels (on no pivot signal)

    -       Note as tomorrow is Veterans Day, we are receiving Initial Jobless Claims data a day early today

    -       Also on economic calendar for today is Import Price Index and Trade Balance at 8:30a (same time as claims data)

    -       30-yr bond auction at 1p should be of more interest than usual given yesterday’s sharp sell off in treasuries

    -       Initial Jobless Claims: 435K vs. 450K; prior revised up to 459K from 457K

    -       Continuing Claims: 4.301M vs. 4.3M, prior was 4.387M

    -       Import Prices Ex Oil: +0.3%, prior +0.3%

    -       Trade Balance: -$44B vs. -$45B; August revised down to -$46.5B from -$46.3B

    -       Futures initially spiked on data, but has since dropped back to same level as prior to data release

    -       G20 summit begins tonight EST, tomorrow in S.Korea

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    Posted in Economy | Tagged 30-yr bond auction, China bank reserve requirements, China's trade balance, Continuing Claims, G20, GLD, Gold, import price, initial jobless claims wednesday, JPY, Korea G20, Nikkei, overseas markets, PBOC, People's Bank of China, premarket pivots, S&P Futures, trade balance, treasuries, USD, Veterans Day stock market, Yen | Leave a Comment (RSS)

    EU Debt Concerns Not Really A Concern

    Posted by Betty L. - Equities Trader on November 9, 2010 8:41am

    Morning Notes

    -       Overseas markets are mixed this AM with Asian markets down (but on low volume) and European bourses up nicely

    -       Shanghai Comp down with weakness attributed to worse than expected inflation number, which would result in tightening by Beijing

    -       Nikkei weakness attributed to yen strength

    -       Headlines that EU debt concerns may be weighing down markets, especially given light U.S. news front; however, European markets are all up and S&P futures are up in the pre market so renewed EU debt concern appears to be a mere excuse (not a major issue)

    -       VOD and BCS in Europe reported today, which may be helping boost European mkts

    -       Dollar down, gold up, oil up

    -       Ahead on economic calendar today: Wholesale Inventories @ 10a EST; other than that, light news day again; in fact, it will be a light week

    -       10-yr note auction results out @ 1p

    -       S&P futures trading up about 2.5 handles from FV

    -       Tight pivot levels on the futures today; we are currently trading around R3 on an unconfirmed R3 sell signal

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    Posted in Stock Market | Tagged 10-yr note auction, Asian markets, BCS, Beijing tightening, China inflation, crude, economic calendar, EU debt concerns, European markets, GLD, Gold, Nikkei, Oil, R3 sell signal, S&P Futures, Shanghai Comp, tight pivots, VOD, wholesale inventories | Leave a Comment (RSS)